Why I think "Argo" will win the Oscar for Best Picture this year: It's a movie about a fake movie being shot in Iran. Explanation? The Academy loves themselves so much. And because they do, they reward movies about movies. If the subject of the film has an element about movies or acting or theatre (British spelling), it's gonna win.
Last year, "The Artist" won a ton because it's about silent movies. And it only beat out "Hugo"—also about movies—because only one could win and "The Artist" was the moviest movie of 2012. By the way, both films won 12 Oscars between them. Twelve!
The year before was "King's Speech," which is about a King who is taught to act like he can speak in public. Acting! "But it beat out 'Black Swan,' Joe." Shut up! That's ballet!
2010: "Hurt Locker." No movie-related nominees that year. Moving on.
2009-2003: No movie-related nominees, unless you count "Finding Neverland," but that movie was more about literature. And it sucked.
2002: "Chicago," a movie about actresses fighting for the spotlight beat out "The Pianist," a holocaust movie? What?
2001: "A Beautiful Mind" beat out "Moulin Rouge." Exception to my theory? No. It was a whorehouse, not a theatre.
1999: "American Beauty," where one of the characters thought the most beautiful thing in the world was a plastic bag floating in the wind that he filmed? The film clip of the floaty bag was one of the last things shown! COME ON! Movie masturbation. Though "American Beauty" was a great "mystery-of-life in a mystery" film, I think "The Green Mile" should have won that year. No Oscar ever for Frank Darabont.
1998: The most tragic Oscar Best Picture upset. "Shakespeare in Love" beating out "Saving Private Ryan." Yes, "Shakespeare in Love" was a great film. Great film. But "Saving Private Ryan" was the greatest war movie of all time! The first 20 minutes of the movie defined how cinema was to be filmed for the next decade! From 1998 and on, all you saw in movie action scenes was high-speed film running at normal, real-time speeds. Look at any war movie after 1998 and see the cinematic impact Steven Spielberg created. "Shakespeare in Love" was a romance comedy with Shakespeare in it. Man. Spielberg's best movie since "Schindler's List" losing to a romantic comedy directed by John Madden. No, not that John Madden. Director of "Captain Corelli's Mandolin." "Oh, THAT John Madden."
And I think, tragically, history will repeat itself and Spielberg's best movie since "Saving Private Ryan," "Lincoln," will loose to ANOTHER movie Ben Affleck is in, "Argo" (he played the legendary actor, "Ned" in "Shakespeare in Love." Huzzah!)
Like the kid filming the floaty bag in "American Beauty," the Academy Awards will talk about substance. But most of the time, they're waiting for a chance to film their next-door neighbor topless to stroke their own "ego" later. Pleeeeaaassee prove me wrong, the Academy.